Four reasons Barcelona are favorites to beat Real Madrid in El Clasico

Imagine if I had told you before the season started that a Spanish team would score so many goals that scorekeepers nationwide might protest due to overwhelming demands. This team would produce Europe’s top scorer, netting 33 goals in just 10 matches, and by late October, they would lead the continent by eight goals.

You might have thought, “Of course! Real Madrid just won the La Liga and Champions League double and signed the world’s best striker! They already had Ballon d’Or contender Vinícius Júnior, and now they’ve added Kylian Mbappé! Everyone else is doomed.”

But you would have been mistaken.

Through 10 games, it’s Barcelona that has reached astonishing heights, not Real Madrid. While Madrid remains unbeaten and only three points behind their rivals, their performances have been a struggle. Barcelona has won five league matches by at least three goals, whereas Madrid has only managed to score three goals in a La Liga game twice this season. The team displaying all-time great attacking prowess is not the one featuring Vinícius, Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham.

Although there’s still plenty of season left and Madrid is still favored to win the La Liga title, it’s clear that Barcelona has been the superior team in the first 10 matches. They are operating at full throttle while Madrid has yet to find their rhythm.

So, how did Barcelona outshine Madrid? As we approach Saturday’s El Clasico, live on ESPN+, let’s explore the factors in order of importance.

One key reason is that Barcelona’s shots are finding the back of the net. Last season, they scored 79 goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 78.47, a statistic that evaluates scoring chances.This alignment of goals and expected goals (xG) might seem typical, but elite teams usually surpass their expected numbers because they create numerous chances for top attackers. Many managers who struggle in a season often leave clubs, but Xavi Hernandez faced similar challenges at Barcelona last season.

In contrast, Hansi Flick, who took over this season, has transformed the team. After 10 matches, Barcelona has scored 33 goals from an xG of 26.4. If they were finishing at last season’s rate, they would have a goal difference of +16, still the best in the league but just slightly ahead of Real Madrid (+14) and Atletico Madrid (+10). Instead, they sit at an impressive +23.

Flick represents a significant upgrade over Xavi, who had limited managerial experience at Al Sadd in Qatar. While Xavi was a competent coach, he struggled to elevate his players beyond their talent level over time.

Flick’s coaching style is often considered polarizing. His time with Germany and his later period at Bayern Munich led some to label him as “naïve.” His teams consistently created many chances but sometimes conceded embarrassing goals. Germany’s early exit from the 2022 World Cup highlighted this issue, as they generated 10.1 xG while conceding only 3.4 but scored just six goals and allowed five.

This doesn’t mean Flick is flawless, but in most sports, coaches often play it too safe. They fear losing more than they focus on winning. Flick, however, is different; he aims to dominate opponents. His teams press aggressively, take numerous shots, and accept the risk of conceding chances. This season, Barcelona has adopted a more aggressive pressing style, controlled more of the field, taken more shots, and allowed fewer attempts against them.

To illustrate, here’s how La Liga teams compare based on passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) and field tilt, which measures possession in the final third.